The volatility in the market is giving everyone sleepless nights. With commodity prices hitting upper and lower circuits on the same day it is very difficult for anyone to catch a perfect trading trend. I know since last two weeks I have saying the same thing that the markets will be volatile and to trade carefully. But if it is the case then I cannot change the truth of it, the markets are volatile and they will remain till mid September and by gods grace if you are lucky you will make money. Believe me it is your luck that is giving you money in this volatile markets because it is very difficult for any analyst to predict moves in this market on intraday basis. How much ever they try the stop losses will be hit. Let me put a very hard fact in front of you, not everyone can afford to make money in this market. It is only a few who follow a discipline can make money, because if you do not have control on emotions you cannot make money. Till the time an investor does not learn to book losses they won’t learn to make profits in a disciplined manner. I have learnt this lesson myself because when I started in this market even I was making the same mistakes. The general physcology of the investor has not changed as yet so they cannot hold any position for a long time as they know that if the prices of commodities are rising they will buy it but will not have the conviction to hold on to it because it is expensive and there is a scare that their positions are very risky to hold at such high levels and they will sell off and book their profits. I bet most of the investors are doing this in the market.
Coming back to rains as I had mentioned last week that if we do not receive rains by this week then we will be having only withdrawal rains. But now that the rains have come in they have come in with a bang and I am a bit scared that maybe Bihar will be facing floods again. You have already seen the devastation in China with the typhoon and I won’t be surprised that east coast of India will have some heavy rains and winds which means Orissa, west Bengal and Bihar. And the funniest part is that in the past history of India when Vidharbha region in Maharashtra had received the drought relief funds after that the same region had floods immediately. That’s why I have never been dependant on our MET department when they come to predict the rains. The MET department has never been right in their prediction because it is not their mistake but the infrastructure is not enough to allow them to predict the rains accurately. They are really in a very sorry state.
The crop figures have not come in as yet and there are many doubts in the market of what the crop figures going to be in future. The last whole week sugars has been in focus and believe me the investors in India are definitely cursing the government of banning that commodity, because they could have made some good money trading on the long side. But my dear readers I have a strong feeling that by September you will see the sugar prices falling like a pack of cards, because the prices are overvalued and there is no way that anyone will consume such expensive sugar. I feel by now the consumers of sugar will start having diabetes with the shock of hearing sugar prices forget consuming it. I am still of the opinion that I do not have any commodity to trade or suggest to any of my readers as I had said earlier I cannot challenge the rain gods and take any risky position in this market only to loose money. All I would say is try your luck trading but do not stretch it by having large quantities.
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